They say "you don't know what you've got until it's gone."

I posit that you don't always need to have it to know that when lost, it can't always be replaced.

It can be lost without ever being yours.

Gone.

Tonight, we drink.

Tomorrow, life goes on as previously scheduled.

Ten thoughts for today:

1. After staying up way too late last night playing the Mookie and enjoying the goofiness of Live Poker Radio, I am dragging big time today. Any deficiencies in posting (or in my productivity @ work) are going to be blamed entirely on the Full Tilt random number generator.

I'll also be blaming the RNG for the supposed melting of the polar ice caps, the decline of the dollar and the continued existence of Fox News "pundits", among other things. Stupid RNG.

2. I didn't get a chance to mention it in yesterday's post, but I actually had a positive poker-related moment during the workday. I was checking out my bloglines feeds and read that the original A-lister - that's right ladies, the Rooster, your reigning WPBT champion - added me to his blogroll. W00t. Boom, instant boost to the spirits.

3. Speaking of the Rooster, he left a comment on my last post, which basically said 'raise more'. If I have time tonight, I'll cobble something together with the details of my 43 hand super dry spell in the Mookie and we can play "Where would YOU have raised?" I'm not afraid to learn something.

4. The World Series of Poker starts tomorrow. Once again, I won't be playing in it. Or going to Las Vegas. I'm a little sad to be missing on the chance to meet up with invisible internet pals and to gawk at the biggest show in the pokerverse, but that's the way it is. Honestly, I prefer to go in December, and I'm probably more bummed about (most likely) missing Okie-Vegas than I am about not going out to Las Vegas Vegas.

5. I will probably pay some level of attention to what happens at the WSOP via PokerNews, LaunchPoker and some other sources, but I won't be paying all that much attention. I prefer playing over watching/following/rooting.

6. One thing that I really haven't seen at all this year is anyone being staked (fully or partly) into a low buyin WSOP tournament - you know, as a way to help a blogger be able to have their first WSOP experience. I also don't remember reading about too many people planning on playing a series of events and selling a piece of their action.

I wouldn't be in for much either way, but it was nice buying a little action last year in a fellow omatard.

7. I will play in the WSOP myself some day, but it's not a priority. To do so in the forseeable future would probably require either (a) a fluke freeroll in or (b) my winning the lottery.

I crack myself up. Winning at poker or the lottery. Yeah, right.

8. I've never played at Ultimate Bet and haven't played at Absolute in a long time, so I haven't been paying any attention to the current UB superuser/cheating controversy. I'll offer my take though - before playing any game anywhere, you should know a little something about the territory. If anything smells funny, go elsewhere. It's as simple as that.

9. Fearless WSOP prediction: Johnny Chan retakes the all time bracelet lead. I'm not laying any money on it, though.

10. I'll announce the winner of the "Underbetting For Value" contest (scroll down for details) on Monday. You still have time to get your entries in - email me your hand histories plz - and win a freeroll into a cheap-ass blogger donkament.

Riverchasers tonight. I think I saw that it's PLO8, which should be agonizing, especially if it's double stacks.

10:00 pm - The Mookie begins.

11:48 pm - I receive my first large pair. AA. It holds, no showdown. I have an M of about 15. (Edit: Now that I think about it, I think I had JJ super early and got a walk or something with it.)

11:49 pm to 12:22 am - I put money in the pot one time in 43 hands - I steal the blinds with A5s. I win one other pot when I see a free flop in the BB with K6o and flop two pair. The best hands I see - by far - are A5s and A8o.

12:23 am - I get a monster - KJs - and open shove. M of 3.

12:23:01 am - I get a call from Astin on my immediate left, who has - SHOCKER! - AA. I don't fill my flush draw, he hit an unnecessary boat. GG.

On the positive side of things, I had a stable connection tonight for the first time in forever. I got disconnected a few times, but nothing like the every twenty seconds experience I've had lately. The disconnect tilt really got me bad on Tuesday and I flamed out of the Skills Series super fast.

Something more interesting than me grousing about the stupid FT RNG tomorrow, I hope.

"I think the average if you look at your PokerTracker stats is that about 90%+ people are net losers in online poker. I think that about 92% - 93% is the industry norm. Yet, I know so few people who have ever lost playing online poker. "
-- Bill Rini

Hi, I'm a loser. And because I'm in denial, it's not totally my fault.

I wasn't always a loser. In the early days, poker was +EV. I was never a big winner, but I won slowly and steadily. I won the odd multi table tournament. I played break even to slightly positive cash games. I had bonuses to subsidize things. 2008, however, has been brutal. If I played a lot (or, as far as you know, for real money), I would be busto.

I am rusty. I play badly. Yadda yadda yadda. But you know what else? A lot of this is my ISP's fault.

Lately, I can't maintain any kind of stable connection and it's driving me NUTS. I'm sure it's no treat for the people seated at my table either - sorry about that. The thing is that nothing puts me on tilt faster or harder than having the stupid "trying to reconnect" window pop up every twenty seconds. Pretty much every tournament I've played lately has involved this kind of tilt which in turn results in stupid moves like shoving 97s.

Rrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

***

So, as kind of a rare treat, I played the MATH last night. Er, I should say that I *tried* to play it. Thirty minutes in I was ready to throw my laptop out the window because of - you guessed it - connection problems. I was already tilted from the failure of what I felt was a well executed play - stupid random number generator - and this was the last straw.

I picked up a few chips early from - and was berated by - Donkette when I turned broadway with KQo from the button. My only defense is that nobody had to let me limp for 40 chips. Or let me have a free card to fill my flopped gutshot.

I then had what I thought was an ideal setup. I figured that ANIguy would be tilting after his three-barrel bluff was called down by Fuel. We got into it the very next hand. I flopped trips on a 668 board with two diamonds. He led out, I popped it, he called. The turn was harmless and I laid out a pot-sized bet of just under 1000 chips - with less than 1300 behind, he'd be committing himself. My read was flush draw. He called. River filled the flush - standard - and didn't boat me. I can't exactly fold to his "shove" of crumbs getting 9-1, but my read was dead on. Fail.

I did get most of those chips back from ANIguy a while later. He'd lost a big hand and gotten very short. I picked up my first decent pair - QQ - and was happy to call his open shove. JTo no good.

Somehow, my connection improved a bit, I slowly recovered from tilt and I even made it into the top 10 chip counts in the middle of hour two. Alas, I managed to blow it. I got moved to a new table, where PirateLawyer was raising at least 50% of the hands. His raises weren't huge - little more than minraises, really, but they were getting respect. He popped my big blind and I defended with plenty of chips and two suited cards. Yeah, the powerful Q8s. Whatever. If I hit, I'm getting paid.

Eight on the flop. I float. Eight on the turn. This is it, I'm going for the double. Nothing scary on the river. I shove over the top. Call. Of course he was A8o for the same trips, better kicker. Out somewhere in the middle of the pack. GG and all that.

My timing still sucks.

Hey, do you think I need to stop playing trips like they're the nuts?

***

I hope you all enjoyed a pleasant Memorial Day weekend (and for our Canadian and overseas friends, nyah). I spent somewhere in the vicinity of thirty hours working in my yard. I also managed to fit in two rounds of golf, three trips to Wally World, three to our local (Wal-Mart) competitor, two trips to Home Depot and one family function.

Needless to say, I could hardly move by last night. One reason I decided to play the MATH was because I could do so from a prone position and without moving too many muscles. Ow.

I need a vacation from my holiday weekend.


This just in: I run way better at contests than I do at poker. Thanks Byron!


Returning briefly to the opening quote, that's a pretty sobering statistic, isn't it? And if you can't believe a poker room manager for one the biggest online sites, who can you believe? I haven't looked at my PT numbers, but it feels about right.

I don't have a plan for turning things around. I don't have a course of action that will improve my game enough to beat the competition, the rake and the stupid RNG. You know what? I don't care all that much. A truly terrible attitude to have, but it is what it is. As long as I have no skills, no plan, no stable internet connection and no working bankroll, the game will remain nothing more than a sporadic diversion. New goal: Keep any losses to those of the happy meal sized variety.

You can suck it.



That's right, CHIP LEADER.

Yeah, yeah, it's two minutes in. So &*($%^!ing what?

My timing still sucks.

Mookie. Last night. Just into the 2nd hour. I'm not desperate, but I am fairly short with an M of around 6. I was hurt with my only "big" pair of the first hour, JJ, but have hung around by raising every big ace in position. I haven't made anything resembling "a move".

I figure I should change things up and try stealing when I actually have enough chips to make people think twice before calling. I open shove with an unsuited disconnector.

The big blind has JJ, makes the "duh!" call* for half his stack, I go home.

The very first time I try and steal. What a surprise.

Not a bad beat, just annoying. I am not cut out to be an aggro monkey.

Anyway, long weekend coming up. I plan to yardwork myself into a state of complete exhaustion. There may be some painting involved. Pokerage is unlikely, but you never know. Don't forget the Riverchasers tonight - one of your last few chances to win a BBT3 tournament of champions (the road to a free WSOP seat) entry. I have no idea what the format is - there was some mention of a heads up tournament, if that's the case I'll pass.

See you, if not there then elsewhere.

* c'mon, this is a blonkament, nobody's folding any pair or any ace there. Or KQ, KJ, KT, 93o, 54s, T2o, whatever.

"A loose fat early-20-year-old wannabe hotshot raised to $11
from EP, and rather than raise, I chose to merely call."

-- Jordan from High on Poker

Bleah. Mondays.

No hands played since the Riverchasers. I played in a golf scramble on Saturday afternoon, so I wasn't around for Saturdays with Dr. Pauly, and there were a million things that needed doing yesterday. I almost never play on Sundays.

We're down to the final stretch of the BBT3. Thank goodness. I'm pretty pleased that my final table on Thursday vaulted me all the way up to 124th in the standings. I'm no longer the worst performer statistically but I'm still in the bottom five. I've come to terms with the fact that I'm not going to win a coinflip ever an event. It's cool. Despite the hit to the bankroll, it's still been a good thing - I've played more events, had more fun.

The festivities roll on with the Hoy tonight, Skills tomorrow, Mookie on Wednesday and Riverchasers on Thursday. On the not BBT3 front, be sure to hit up the Bodonkey on Tuesday - still plenty of opportunity to win a WSOP SEAT. I've seen rumblings about some additional blogger tournaments as well. I missed Loretta8's heads up event last night, for one, but I think there are others. My own schedule is going to be very light this week - I'm wiped out already and have a million things to do, plus golf league.

There's still time to get into the Underbetting for Value contest. Win yourself a freeroll into a bloggament by minbetting one or more donkeys off a big juicy pot. Details are here.

See you at the tables. Eventually.

Razz has competition in the contest to be named "official game of Satan". Limit OE (Omaha hi-lo and Stud hi-lo) is right there in the mix. Obviously that's what the Riverchasers was last night. Thank whatever higher power you believe in that it wasn't double stacks.

I really shouldn't complain - I finished fourth. I think I'll improve on my 154th place BBT3 ranking.

Here's where I tell you about how awesome I played.

...

Hey, where did those crickets I ordered disappear to?

...

Let's be real. I played like a burro ass donkey. Sucked out to stay alive several times. Misread hands. Chased like it was my job. I was just on the right end of variance. It did kind of suck, though, to get crippled when I started (I think) 23/45 against RNallin's board of random high cards. Three bricks later I folded something like jack high no low to a river bet.

Oh well.

Don't forget the Friday donkament tonight and the BBT3 continues with the usual slate of events next week. Poker is going to continue to be on the back burner for a while for me - I have yard work, office work, a golf scramble and a bunch of other stuff on tap for the weekend.

I could feel the rust on my game last night in the Mookie. Regular (1500 chip) stacks meant you needed to double up fairly early or go home. I went home. Home via the bad play expressway.

As has happened way too often in the BBT3, I was first owned by Cmitch. I swear that he floats and checkraises me all in on the flop a hundred times more often than any blogger out there. As per usual, I dumped my lousy hand (which was bottom pair no kicker) and gifted him with more than a quarter of my stack.

Shortly thereafter I failed to remember that Bayne is, well, bayne. He raised pot on the button and like a retard I shoved the first good hand I'd seen right over the top from the SB. Small problem - I had arrgh AQo and he's not going to fold AKo. Duh.

Riverchasers tonight maybe. I don't know what the game is and I have a million things to do, so who knows. 9PM ET Full Tilt pw riverchasers.

***

Don't forget to get your entries in for the Underbetting for Value contest. So far Fuel is winning, but you have two weeks left to enter.

As much as I love the donkbet, I am not eligible to win my own contest.

***

Off topic moment. I purchased some new computer speakers for my office - since I think I'm going to be spending even more time there, why not be able to listen to music. They aren't the cheapest model, but nothing fancy. I cued up the first mp3 and immediately noticed how good the sound was. Great. Now I have to buy new speakers for my stereo at home - this really pointed out how lousy the sound is with the ones I have. Isn't that how it always works? Buy something and as soon as you do discover that you really should buy more stuff.

Oh, and I also need a new computer so that I'm not constantly hanging the processor, but that isn't going to happen.


My MSpaint "skillz" (and I use that term very loosely) are also a bit rusty. One of these days I need to finish up a doodle that pretty much summarizes my 2008 poker experience...

Fuel is an advocate of the "overbet for value" (betting extra large amounts when you have a monster in hopes that one or more donktards will call). Overbetting for value is indeed awesome, but you can only do so much of it.

When you play the nanostakes like I do, you'll much more often see radical under-bets. People love to bet the absolute minimum or just above it in hopes that you'll fold. God only knows why, since pretty much nobody folds a hand better than eight high. It's donktastic, but occasionally it works - possibly because people DO check the "fold to any bet" box.

Here's a hypothetical hand in action:

Full Tilt Poker Game #6930002269: Table Whatever (deep) - $0.15/$0.30 - No Limit Hold'em

Seat 1: NotEvy ($29.70)
Seat 2: on_thg ($30)
NotEvy posts the small blind of $0.15
on_thg posts the big blind of $0.30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to on_thg [7d 2s]
(folds)
NotEvy calls $0.15
on_thg checks
*** FLOP *** [8h 9c 3c]
NotEvy checks
on_thg bets $1.60
NotEvy calls $1.60
*** TURN *** [8h 9c 3c] [9d]
NotEvy checks
on_thg bets $4.80
NotEvy calls $4.80
*** RIVER *** [8h 9c 3c] [9d] [Ks]
NotEvy checks
on_thg bets $0.25 [uh, boom?]
NotEvy folds [I mean, LOfreakinL]
Uncalled bet of $0.25 returned to on_thg
on_thg mucks
on_thg wins the pot ($13.40)

Why on earth would you do something as RETARDEDstupid as that? Good question!

Because you can win monies, that's why -- I love a good contest, so I will offer up a buyin to the cheapest damned blogger tournament I can find (probably the Mookie or Riverchasers, your choice) for the most reDONKalous underbet for value. The only criteria are that (1) you make a small bet relative to the size of the pot - this can be on any street - and (2) your opponent(s) fold. If you get multiple folds, bonus for you.

Email your entries to resipsapoker ...... at .... hot .... maildotcom (I think you can figure that one out) - full hand history plzkthxbye. Contest runs through the end of May. I may add additional prizes if I feel inspired.

Back later with some poker content. For the moment, a question.

I have been sifting through my music collection - I have a reasonable assortment of mp3s, some concerts in FLAC or mp3, a bunch of CDs I could rip if I ever got motivated. What I don't have is any kind of software that organizes it. Historically I've just used Windows Media Player (for the MP3s at least), which offers at least rudimentary playlist and jukebox features, but I usually end up searching all over my hard disk for files if I'm not playing off a list.

Anyone have a suggestion as to a program I should check out?

Edit: Since the price is right, I guess I'll try iTunes first. Never used it, believe it or not. Now we'll see how much of 160GB I can fill up without additional ripping...

Flipchip over at LasVegasVegas took this picture in connection with the National Heads Up Championship airing on NBC today:


Look at that crowd. Do they look PUMPED to be there or what? Riveted by the action? Um, yeah.

Edit: Also, I think this picture should be submitted to Stuff White People Like for their inevitable entry on poker.

Hey, it's a poker post without a bad beat story! Yay!

I actually played the Riverchasers without experiencing a single bad beat. I'm thrilled - more thrilled than I should be about my 58th place finish.

I played sound - if my ego were more Hellmuthian, I'd dare say 'perfect' - poker for an hour and change. No bad decisions. I dumped KK like whoa when my preflop raise got two callers and an ace appeared in the door. I made a couple low risk high reward moves and chipped up from 3k to nearly 4k. Not flashy but very solid. Like I know I can play. I even got a couple hands. Yes.

Umm...

And then I realized that it was pushing 10:30, I was tired and it was way past time to go home. Focus lost, I made a poor decision, running AJo on the button into AKo in the big blind on an ace high flop. I did think it through but shoved anyway. No excuses, it was just wrong. Bad play. Stupid play. Oh well. I can work on focus.

That was it for the evening. No cash games, no pushfests, no other poker. Actually, that's probably it for the weekend, unless the weather really turns lousy. Too much to do, too much to do.

Since my last confession, I have played zero hands of online (play money as far as you know) poker.

Although I have been tempted, the urge hasn't been all that strong. It was greatest on Tuesday night, when I arrived home about four minutes before the start of the Skillz Series. But then I remembered that I have a computer with Windows [censored] XP which takes at least five minutes to start up and that Full Tilt doesn't allow late signups. Plus, it was Razz. Eww.

Pass.

So, rather than continuing my efforts to redefine the term FAIL as it applies to poker, I've been doing other stuff. One thing I've "accomplished" is going through all unread posts I had in Bloglines.

A hot topic of discussion around the poker blog and message board -ospheres is Caesars' decision to delay the playing of the final table at this year's WSOP. It's pretty much been discussed to death and nobody really wants my thoughts ... but I'll give them anyway.

In my (fairly humble) opinion, the delayed final table will go down as a short-lived experiment, something like playing the final table outdoors on Fremont Street. It's an interesting idea that isn't going to produce the hoped-for results. The goal is to boost ESPN ratings. The problem is that the delay doesn't really change the TV product at all - it will still be tape delayed. Results will be available in advance via the magic of the internet. Anyone with any level of interest will know how things turn out. The only difference vis-a-vis the existing product is that there will be a shorter lag between the action and the broadcast. So what? Unless you reduce that lag to something very close to zero you aren't going have the element of suspense that seems to me to be necessary to juice the ratings. ESPN and/or Caesars will decide that the results aren't worth the expense and will kill it.

[Edited. Thanks to the Luckbox for pointing out that the lag isn't going to be much - only a day or so. I don't think it changes my opinion, though. I will be surprised if ratings for the final table are appreciably higher than for the rest of ESPN's broadcasts - the delay is more likely, IMO, to cause people not already watching the coverage to forget about the WSOP than is it to make those same people anticipate the conclusion. Then again, I've been wrong before.]

Two year lifespan, max.

Speaking of killing, I wonder what the odds are of one of the final table participants dying during the delay. I'd have to think that they're pretty long - I'd say at least 2,500 to 1 - but shorter than they would otherwise be (statistically) because of the money at stake and because of the scumbags that hang on the peripheries of the game.

Hmmm, there are an awful lot of possibilities for prop bets with this final table delay. Odds that one of the final tablers is discovered during the gap to be a cheating online multi-accounter? 15 to 1. A final tabler outed during the gap as a recovering sex offender who whistles show tunes to his cats every morning? 285,000 to 1.

The possibilities are endless.

Tonight is the Riverchasers, 9 PM Full Tilt pw riverchasers as always. I have no idea what the game is. I may or may not be there, depending on whether my mood improves (currently: pissy), I make any progress cleaning carpets and if the game isn't fRazz.

Man I wish they'd hurry up and perfect human cloning. I need a couple copies of me, stat.

Specifically, I need two or three just for work. One of us can be the guy that takes care of the phone calls and drop ins, all the hand-holding type stuff that takes up most of the business day. One can do the actual work. I'd like there to be a third me to handle office management, business development, networking and all the other petty junk, but that one is negotiable.

I can't even imagine what a boost to productivity it would be to not be interrupted every three minutes.

{Go here if you are unfamiliar with the BBT3. - ed.}

Hoyazo is back from a crippling bout of mono (welcome back, hope you feel better) and has a couple new novella-length posts up. This paragraph about the BBT3 Tournament of Champions got my attention:

What's happened in the end is a rash of people agreeing to sell the ToC seat in deals, but settling for less money than others personally value the ToC seat alone to be worth. I've heard the figure of $550 or some shit like that kicked around, and I think that figure is silly because a good half of the people currently in the ToC in my view have close to zero chance of cashing in one of the top four spots in the series-ending Tournament of Champions, and most of them know it. To think that a person who knows he isn't very strong at no-limit holdem, doesn't play against the bloggers enough to know anything about them individually, and/or already has a seat somehow assigns $550 worth of value to their freeroll "buyin" at the end of the ToC, simply reflects a lack of understanding of how most of these people think.

(emphasis added).

Really? Close to zero?

Leaving aside the whole issue of chops - which I haven't given a minute's worth of thought - do you (and by you I mean both Hoy and you the reader) really think that a good half of the TOC entrants have virtually no shot at top four?

I just skimmed over the list of seat winners and to my careless eye it seems like a "who's who" of players who are both lucky and good. Regular winners of blonkaments. Sure there are a couple of outliers, but nothing approaching half of the field.

Factor in sheer luckboxery - not pointing any fingers here, but it's true - and I don't think I'd assign a "close to zero" chance to anyone, not even the worst players (not to be confused with the Worst Player, who definitely has a shot). Anyone want to offer me juicy odds on a "no chance" half of the field?

Don't get me wrong, I know this isn't the point of the paragraph - it may just be hyperbole - and think I generally agree with the rest of the discussion. Seats in the BBT3 tournament of champions (should) have different values to different people.

I'm just bemused that anyone, Hoy or otherwise, would think that such a high percentage of the field would have no chance.

Then again, as the 138th ranked BBT3 player and the single worst performer on a statistical basis (thanks muhctim and joshuacarlsen for at least being in the conversation, hope you guys cash soon), what the hell do I know?

Don't answer that.

I do know one thing - if you were willing to sell me your TOC seat, I would pay you exactly one dollar for it. That's $1 more than expected value for me given my skill level and how I'm running. The dollar is so that I can afford to pay you for the bad beat story when I bust out with a big pair and position against 63o. The difference between me and the "no shot" TOC people is they at least have the luck and/or skill to have gotten down to the final two in a blonkament.

{post cleaned up a bit, 3:00 ET 5/6/08}


Onward and downward.

Tonight being Tuesday, that means the Skillz Series at 9:30 (pw skillz) which I think is fRazz tonight. I may play, depending on how much I feel like being treated like a redheaded stepchild an Austrian daughter.

The Bodonkey is also tonight at 9:05 - still time there to win a seat at the World Series. I've burned through all my T$ on Bodog so I don't have many Bodonkeys left.

It's time to bump the badge:

I can't decide if my ISP is on my side or not.

After an entire weekend sans internet - my connection died Friday night and I could never reconnect - I feel out of touch.

No internet means no virtual poker. I would have played the Friday Donkament and Saturdays With Dr. Pauly, but that's probably about it. Too much other stuff to do.

Did my ISP cost me fake winnings in addition to the enjoyment of playing with my invisible internet pals, or did it save me "money" by refusing me access so that I couldn't continue my brutal slide on down into the poker abyss?

Who knows? I sure don't.

"Under promise, over deliver."

Pretty much every business book I've ever read says that is a key to success. Manage the expectations of your boss/client/customer and then do a little extra. Or do it a little faster.

Problem: I'm terrible at estimating when things will be done.

I am always way too optimistic, which means that I under deliver when the work takes longer than I said it should. This makes people sadmad.

Argh.

Some of the problem is obviously me. Things take longer than I think they will because of some combination of laziness, exhaustion, distraction, annoyance, mental or physical defectiveness, whatever. I also hate to deal with many of the people I have to deal with, and I tend to shade my projections in such a way that I won't lose twenty minutes to a rant about why it's going to take so long. I'd rather pay the price (in bitching) later instead of now.

Some of it is not me. There are times when I have to do things on deadline. Sometimes I don't get a whole lot of notice for appearances. Sometimes I get none. When these things come up, I do not have time to work on previously scheduled tasks. I cannot do two things at once and I do have to sleep occasionally, facts which escape some of my more irrational customers.

Some of it is both me and not me. I struggle to juggle priorities when frustration with the insanity and relentless demands of some customers push those tasks ahead of where they *should* be in the queue.

At the moment I am stuck in an absolute vortex. I'm behind on my deliveries, so I end up getting an endless stream of phone calls and drop ins to ask "where is my stuff?" ... which in turn puts me further behind.

Will I ever learn?